Beirut:Lebanese political circles have raised concerns about the stability of the framework agreement between Lebanon and Israel, which was signed under American auspices. The agreement is reportedly at risk of faltering or collapsing.
According to Maan News Agency, the upcoming start of the new US Congress in January may bring changes to the priorities of President Donald Trump's administration. The role of Secretary of State Marco Rubio in the Lebanese file is also under scrutiny. Lebanese officials have a two-month deadline to salvage the agreement and revitalize the negotiation process, as a new round of talks has not yet been scheduled, and the negotiation process seems to be declining.
Political circles are worried that the results of the US midterm elections may alter Washington's approach to the Lebanese issue. This could involve a reduction in Rubio's role or a shift in priorities away from the Lebanese file in favor of US-Iranian negotiations. Analysts suggest that there is a possibility of Rubio leaving the State Department.
In this context, a joint statement by five countries, including the United States, has urged Lebanese authorities to expedite the implementation of the state's monopoly on the use of force. Lebanese circles interpret this statement as pressure on the government to address the issue of disarming Hezbollah.
The Lebanese government faces three options for dealing with the crisis. The first option involves taking a hard line against Israel, demanding concrete steps from Israel, such as withdrawing from occupied areas in southern Lebanon. However, this option is considered unlikely due to the associated risks. The second option is to resume negotiations, asking the United States to schedule a new round of talks while the Lebanese army demonstrates its authority in the south. The third option is to maintain the current situation for two months, awaiting clarity in the American and regional political landscape. This last option, although considered the most likely, may not save the agreement and could lead to increased pressure from Israel and a loss of confidence from Washington in Lebanon's ability to fulfill its commitments.